Invest 90L Worth Keeping an Eye on This Weekend

As Sally moves out, the focus is now on an area in the southwestern Gulf for potential development.

NEW ORLEANS —

Invest 90L

Now with Sally gone, our focus can be devoted to the tropical wave in the SW Gulf, currently being classified as Invest 90L. It certainly appears the associated mositure will be drawn northward to the west and central Gulf coast due to the upper pattern, but what, if anything, actually develops and where it goes remains a huge question. Dry air looks very certain (from multiple models) to surge south across the Gulf coast. If this dry air remains into next week, that will play a huge role in any potential development and impacts. There is just so much uncertainly in the early stages of a developing system. Yesterday models had the wave either moving inland toward Mexico or stalled basically where it is. Now models either stall for a few days and begin moving north (to Texas) or northeast (to LA). Timing could be anywhere from this weekend or next week. I say this with the ENORMOUS caveat that there is zero model agreement or consistency. We must wait and see what happens. At this time, there appear to be weak to non-existent steering currents in that part of the Gulf, so we likely won’t see anything move right away. Stay tuned… Can’t this season just end!? Oh, by the way…there is also a tropical wave in the Atlantic with equal chances for development. So, IF we saw the system in the Gulf get named, it would be a race between the names Wilfred or Alpha! This is SO 2020!

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As for southeast Louisiana, which forecasters say “dodged a bullet” from Sally, winds will shift from the north to the northwest across the region Wednesday which will help push the storm’s surge back out of Lake Pontchartrain and along the coast.

All tropical storm warnings are canceled for southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. 

Rest of the Tropics

Paulette is now a post-tropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic. It will meander over the north Atlantic the next few days.

Hurricane Teddy is in the central Atlantic and forecast to become a Cat. 4 major hurricane soon. Fortunately, it is expected to stay out at sea, but it could possibly impact Bermuda next Monday as a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Vicky is located NW of the Cabo Verde Islands and is not expected to last long. It will weaken into a remnant low by Friday and stays out in the middle of the Atlantic.

Invest 98L is just off Africa and it has a high chance to become a tropical system in the next few days. It is expected to stay out at sea. 

Invest 99L is over the north Atlantic and has a low chance to develop. 

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