Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the world’s largest company by market capitalization, so it takes a lot for companies to surpass it in terms of valuation. However, I think that it’s possible. The number of companies in a position to pass Apple is relatively few, based solely on Apple’s sheer $3.6 trillion valuation. However, I think that three companies are primed to do it.
These three are Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). This trio should come as no surprise, as they are the second-, third-, and fifth-largest companies by market cap in the world.
So, how will this trio surpass Apple in five years? Simple! Growth.
Apple hasn’t really grown over the past three years. Just take a look at this chart, which shows how dead the company’s financials have been.
This is a huge problem for Apple, and it needs to figure something out; otherwise, this anemic growth could cause it to give up its market leadership position. However, FY 2025 doesn’t look like it will bring investors much relief. An average of 38 Wall Street analysts project Apple’s revenue will grow 4.6% this year. That’s more of the same performance, and it opens the door for these other three companies to surpass Apple over the next five years.
Microsoft and Alphabet consistently posted double-digit growth for multiple consecutive years, and the next two years look no different. Wall Street analysts see the following growth projections:
|
Company |
FY 2025 |
FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|
|
Microsoft |
13% |
14% |
|
Alphabet |
11% |
11% |
Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Note: Microsoft’s fiscal year ends June 30.
These projections are pretty consistent with the historical performance of both businesses, so we’ll give Microsoft a 13% revenue growth rate and Alphabet an 11% revenue growth rate for our calculations. Over the next five years, this is what their revenue would look like if they continued those growth rates (assuming we give Apple a 5% revenue growth rate).
|
Company |
2029 Projected Revenue |
|---|---|
|
Apple |
$505 billion |
|
Microsoft |
$645 billion |
|
Alphabet |
$441 billion |
Data source: YCharts.
However, we’re not done with these figures yet, as we need to multiply them by their profit margins to understand what profits each company will generate in five years.
|
Company |
2029 Projected Profits |
|---|---|
|
Apple |
$123 billion |
|
Microsoft |
$228 billion |
|
Alphabet |
$126 billion |
Data source: YCharts.
So, after five years, Microsoft and Alphabet will outperform Apple in terms of profit production. This could be enough of a catalyst to propel both of them to be valued at a higher level than Apple.
As for Nvidia, it’s extremely difficult to project out five years due to the rapidly shifting landscape of the artificial intelligence (AI) environment. Its GPUs (graphics processing units) power the AI arms race, and it’s growing incredibly fast right now. But nobody knows what this business will look like five years from now.
However, if we shorten the time frame down to two years, Wall Street projects Nvidia will generate $243 billion two years from now. After multiplying that by its profit margin (56%), it’s clear that in two years, Nvidia will be producing around $136 billion in profits — far higher than the figure Apple is projected to reach in five years.
Due to Apple’s slow growth, I think it’s feasible that these three could surpass Apple in size within five years. However, if Apple can launch a new hit product and reaccelerate its growth to double digits, this may not happen. There have been little signs of life over the past few years at Apple, and this could be an issue for years to come.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: 3 Stocks That’ll Be Worth More Than Apple 5 Years From Now was originally published by The Motley Fool