Nifty Outlook for September 16
The Nifty 50 bulls took a breather after an eight-day rally, closing with moderate losses on September 15. The formation of a Tweezer Top-like pattern—a bearish reversal signal—suggests caution for bulls, but confirmation is required in the next session. Notably, the pattern has appeared near the August swing high of 25,154, which the index failed to surpass for a second consecutive session, touching an intraday high of around 25,138–25,139.
Despite the pause, the overall uptrend remains intact as long as the index defends the 25,000 level in upcoming sessions. A successful hold above this level could open the door to 25,154—a crucial hurdle for any further upward movement—followed by 25,250. On the downside, the 24,900–24,800 zone, which converges with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, will serve as key support. A breakdown below this area could turn the trend unfavourable for bulls.
The Nifty 50 opened at 25,119 and traded within a 90-point range before closing at 25,069, down 45 points. It formed a bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows, within the previous day’s green candle, indicating a rangebound session.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 60, ending at 59.01, though it still maintains a bullish crossover. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to show a strong positive crossover with increasing strength in the histogram, signaling that the broader trend remains in favour of bulls.
According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the near-term uptrend in the Nifty remains intact.
“The present consolidation/weakness could be a buy-on-dips opportunity, and eventually, Nifty is expected to break out above the hurdle at 25,150. A sharp breakout above 25,150 could open the next upside target at 25,400–25,500 levels,” he said, adding that immediate support is placed at 24,900.
Options Data Insight
Weekly options data suggests that 25,000 is likely to act as immediate support, followed by 24,800. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 25,100–25,200 zone.
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• Put Open Interest (OI): Maximum at 25,000 strike, followed by 25,100 and 24,800.
• Put Writing: Highest at 25,100, 25,050, and 25,000 strikes.
• Call OI: Maximum at 25,100 strike, followed by 25,200 and 25,500.
• Call Writing: Concentrated at 25,100, 25,200, and 25,150 strikes.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty extended its upward journey for the ninth consecutive session, gaining 79 points to close at 54,888—just above the 100-day EMA (54,838). The index formed a Doji pattern for another session, indicating indecision among bulls and bears.
According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, going ahead, the 50-day EMA zone of 55,100–55,200 will act as a crucial hurdle. A sustainable move above 55,200 could trigger a sharp rally toward 55,600, followed by 56,000 in the short term.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 54,700–54,600 is expected to act as key support, he said.
India VIX
The India VIX, the fear index, rebounded 2.72 percent to 10.4 after a four-day decline, signaling some caution in the market. However, the VIX remains below all key moving averages, which is still considered supportive for bulls.
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