Hurricane center tracking Invest 98L. Will it become Melissa, impact Sarasota, Bradenton?

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The National Hurricane Center in Florida is monitoring Invest 98L, a tropical wave expected to strengthen and develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next several days, according to a Monday, Oct. 20 advisory.

The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Melissa.

The tropical wave was located west of the Windward Islands Monday morning and moving westward at 15 to 20 mph.

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According to the hurricane center, heavy rainfall and gusty winds were subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days regardless of further development.

It’s too soon to determine whether the system will impact Florida or the Sarasota area.

The National Weather Service forecast for Sarasota-Manatee this week currenly calls mostly clear and sunny conditions through Sunday, with temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

Invest 98L expected to become tropical depression or storm this week. Where will it go?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of the wave axis.

The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.

• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.

Invest 98L spaghetti models, potential path, track

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

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What is an invest?

Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.

Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.

Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.

Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.

Could Invest 98L impact Sarasota, Bradenton and Manatee County, Florida?

It’s possible Invest 98L could impact Florida, but that’s only one of the possible scenarios.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the invest could become a tropical storm over the Caribbean early this week and “confidence is increasing that parts of the Caribbean and portions of the southeastern United States may experience direct impacts.”

“People across the Caribbean should closely monitor forecast updates as the situation could escalate quickly,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

“Atmospheric conditions are primed for a storm to form in the Caribbean. The waters are exceptionally warm since the Caribbean has not been disturbed by a single tropical storm or hurricane so far this season,” DaSilva said.

“Weighing all the odds, based on what we see for this week in the Caribbean and with the jet stream, it is highly unlikely for a tropical storm (or hurricane) to reach areas in the U.S. west of Tallahassee,” DaSilva said.

“However, the chances increase farther to the east over Florida and especially South Florida to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Where could Invest 98L go? Possible track, path, scenarios

The tropical wave’s possible track and interaction with land will heavily influence its strength and organization, AccuWeather said.

An expansion and strengthening of the jet stream could help prevent a developing storm from moving north very much in the Gulf and along the U.S. Atlantic coast but AccuWeather said:

• An early dip in the jet stream would not be of concern for the zone from Central America to Florida.

• If there’s a dip in the jet stream later this week, odds increase for a possible track into the Florida Peninsula.

“The storm would have to get to Jamaica or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to be of concern to Florida as we see it now,” DaSilva said. “If the system remains weak and steers westward, it may continue on a path into Central America with no additional U.S. threat.”

What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? How likely are they to strengthen?

The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring three other tropical waves, in addition to Invest 98L:

• A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W, from 12N southward, moving westward around 11 to 17 mph. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 28W and 31W.

• A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, from 10N southward, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 44W and 50W.

• Another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has its axis near 74W south of 15N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph. Associated convection is inland over Colombia.

What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be impacted by Invest 98L, tropical waves out there?

It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Invest 98L or the tropical waves.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.

Weather radar for Bradenton, Sarasota and Manatee County, Florida

Weather watches and warnings issued in Bradenton, Sarasota and Manatee County, Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Hurricane names for 2025 season

Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.

• Andrea  (June 20)

• Barry  (June 29)

• Chantal (July 5)

• Dexter: (Aug. 3)

• Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)

• Fernand: (Aug. 23)

• Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)

• Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)

• Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)

• Jerry: Oct. 7

• Karen: Oct. 9

• Lorenzo: Oct. 13

• Melissa: meh-LIH-suh

• Nestor: NES-tor

• Olga: OAL-guh

• Pablo: PAHB-lo

• Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh

• Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en

• Tanya: TAHN-yuh

• Wendy: WEN-dee

National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?

Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.

To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.

Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:

• Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.

• Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.

• Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Invest 98 spaghetti models, path, track. Sarasota, Florida impact?