Nvidia (NVDA) stock fell nearly 3% in yesterday’s trading session, extending a 7% drop from the previous day, after the Trump administration banned exports of its H20 AI chips to China. As a result, NVDA now expects a $5.5 billion revenue hit in Q1 due to the inability to fulfill large orders from Chinese tech giants like ByteDance and Alibaba (BABA). The stock’s decline on Thursday has reduced Nvidia’s market capitalization to $2.47 trillion, erasing approximately $266 billion since the announcement of the tighter trade rules.
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Analysts Cut Forecasts on NVDA
UBS has trimmed its price target for Nvidia stock from $185 to $180, pointing to the U.S. government’s tighter rules on selling AI chips to China. According to the firm, the new restrictions on NVDA’s H20 chip could hurt its revenue and profit margins.
UBS estimates that Nvidia could lose around $700 million in revenue in the April quarter, followed by another $8 billion over the next two quarters. The firm also lowered its gross margin forecast to 58–59% in the current quarter, down from the previous estimate of 71%, due to higher tariff-related costs.
On top of that, the company has delayed some chip upgrades. UBS said Nvidia decided to stick with its current chip design, called Bianca, instead of switching to a newer design named Cordelia, which is having technical issues.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur said the new export rules could cut Nvidia’s full-year data center revenue and earnings per share by 8% to 10%. That would mean a potential loss of $15 billion to $16 billion this year. At the same time, Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis gave a more cautious view, predicting a $10 billion hit to revenue.
Is NVDA Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Even with all the market turbulence, analysts are standing firm in their confidence around Nvidia’s future. On TipRanks, NVDA stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 37 Buys and five Hold ratings. Also, the average Nvidia price target of $170.78 implies 68.27% upside potential from current levels.