MIAMI – The odds that a disturbance on a long trek across the Atlantic Ocean will become a more organized tropical system are plummeting Saturday as it struggles to survive a hostile atmospheric environment.
The FOX Forecast Center has been keeping a close eye on Invest 91L, which has been swirling in the central Atlantic for several days, after forecast models had shown favorable conditions to strengthen for much of the week. The National Hurricane Center at one point had given 90% probability the system would eventually reach at least a tropical depression.
But those trends have quickly diminished as the system now encounters drier air and wind shear, knocking the system’s odds for development into the low category.
The NHC said in its early Friday afternoon update that 91L is now in an area where environmental conditions will likely cap its development over the next 48 hours. By Saturday, they confirmed the likelihood of further development was unlikely.
“A tropical depression is a low bar. It just means that the system has developed an organized circulation,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “As it moves slowly west, it will be plowing through patches of dusty air, which will likely keep it from intensifying quickly, and the dry air could do it in.”
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The FOX Forecast Center said that the steering currents are weak across the tropical belt, so it may take a while until what’s left of the system is in the vicinity of the Caribbean islands.
Be sure to download the free FOX Weather app to keep up with developments of this tropical disturbance.
Original article source: Invest 91L unraveling in Atlantic as odds for development plummet