Stock futures inch higher following Monday's relief rally: Live updates

Recession potentially could be postponed but can't be avoided completely: Fundstrat’s Mark Newton

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Monday after the market staged a relief rally on the hope that the banking turmoil would be contained.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 56 points. S&P 500 futures inched up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.16%.

The blue-chip Dow rallied more than 380 points on Monday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9%. The action came a day after a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, which was engineered by the Swiss government. Investors also welcomed news that JPMorgan Chase could be advising embattled First Republic Bank on strategic alternatives.

First Republic Bank sold off another 47% during the session, extending its month-to-date decline to 90% as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank made investors worried about other banks with large uninsured deposit bases.

Other regional banks rebounded from big losses in the past week. The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 1% Monday after dropping 14% last week, with PacWest, First Citizens and Fifth Third Bancorp among the names leading the rebound.

“Bank selling appears exhausted and it would take the emergence of fresh deposit problems at a new name to bring out incremental supply, although there’s very little interest to step in and buy the group, especially the regionals,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.

Investors now expect a slower pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve in light of the banking crisis. Traders now are pricing in a 77% chance of a quarter-point rate hike when the Fed wraps its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The probability of a pause is at 23%.

“Risks of contagion are rising and could push the Fed to pause the current rate hiking cycle, although this is not our base case,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The Fed will likely signal they are near the end of their rate hiking campaign as recession risks increase and inflation pressures decrease.”