Thursday marks the start of the 2-month countdown to Election Day. That’s been a rough stretch for stocks in presidential election years, as shown in the table above.
The S&P 500 has fallen in that period in every presidential election year since 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped in each one since 2000. Taking a wider view, the data is less onerous but less than stellar. The S&P 500 has risen around half the time.
Investing pros caution that while it’s worth paying attention to seasonal patterns, they’re merely a record of what has happened in the past rather than a roadmap.