Stock market today: US futures inch up with inflation data in focus

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Here’s an interesting fun fact on Netflix (NFLX) you probably didn’t realize.

The stock has rallied 12% since May 1, and is now trading at the levels seen before the company’s disappointing earnings day in late April.

In a new note this morning, JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth credits the rebound to “1) increased comfort with both the 2024 reported revenue outlook and NFLX’s decision to no longer report subscribers beginning in 2025; 2) recognition that NFLX is not subject to heavy AI-driven capex intensity like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon; and 3) excitement into the Upfront presentation on May 16.”

The annual Upfront is when TV networks and streaming services pitch their programming and ad products to advertisers and agencies.

Anmuth thinks Netflix will have bullish things to say at the event that could be a catalyst to the stock.

“At the Upfront we expect an update to the 23 million plus ad tier monthly active user (MAU) disclosure, with our conversations suggesting investors are looking for 35-40 million plus ad tier MAUs, including the benefit of the T-Mobile bundle. Outside of ad tier metrics, we expect updates on the upcoming content slate and NFLX’s sports strategy, with articles suggesting NFLX could host two NFL games on Christmas later this year. NFLX would bring the NFL large global distribution while the games could serve as a boost to NFLX’s ad tier and enable the company to actively promote upcoming content. Finally, we look for progress around improving the ad product, tech, and sales, with some investors expecting a 3P demand side platform announcement,” Anmuth says.