Tesla is expected to report another decline in quarterly deliveries on Wednesday, with Wall Street analysts forecasting second-quarter deliveries between 355,000 and 386,000 units—a year-over-year drop of up to 20%. The report follows a tepid investor response to Tesla’s recent robotaxi launch, with shares rising just 0.5% last week despite the milestone announcement.
The underwhelming stock movement comes as CEO Elon Musk faces ongoing backlash for his political alignment and controversial public statements, which some analysts say are dampening consumer demand. At the same time, Tesla is contending with growing competitive pressure from Chinese EV makers and an aging vehicle lineup. Analysts expect full-year sales to decline 8%, the first annual drop since the company’s early growth phase.
The latest decline follows a 13% decline in deliveries in the first quarter. Much of the Q2 shortfall has been attributed to customers delaying purchases in anticipation of a refreshed Model Y, though investors say demand hasn’t rebounded as expected.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s robotaxi service launched in limited areas of Austin, Texas, but failed to ignite the stock. Despite showcasing autonomous rides with fare-paying passengers, investors were split. Bulls saw promise in the technology, while critics cited scalability concerns and documented ride flaws.
Additional headwinds are looming. The Senate is advancing a bill that would cut EV tax credits after September, potentially weakening Tesla’s appeal to price-sensitive buyers. Musk criticized the proposal as “utterly insane,” warning it would hurt future-focused industries like EVs.
The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!
Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future. https://t.co/TZ9w1g7zHF
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 28, 2025
Tesla’s market share is shrinking in key regions. In China, Tesla’s EV share fell to 7.6% in the first five months of 2025 from 10% the year prior. In Europe, sales declined by nearly 28% in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of decreases.
Analysts expect second-quarter earnings in a few weeks, predicting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, down from $0.52 in the same quarter last year. Earlier forecasts for 2025 projected an EPS of $0.85 per share. Investors will also seek updates on Tesla’s upcoming vehicle model, which the company confirms is still scheduled for release in 2025.
To meet Musk’s stated goal of returning to growth this year, Tesla would need to deliver more than 1 million vehicles in the second half—a record-breaking target amid rising interest rates and intensifying competition.