NEW YORK – US growers say the Trump administration’s US$12 billion (S$15.5 billion) aid package brings temporary relief, but is unlikely to kickstart a lasting recovery for the American farm economy.
President Donald Trump on Dec 8 unveiled a package to a key base of support that includes as much as US$11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers who have been hit hard by his tariff regime and low crop prices.
“This is kind of a Band-Aid – we need more markets more than we need aid,” said Missouri farmer Marty Richardson, adding that he feels like 2026 will be just as bad as 2025. “We’re already buying seed for next year and fertiliser, and we’re behind the eight ball.”
It’s a familiar sentiment across the Farm Belt, as farmers have been struggling for years with weak exports, falling crop prices and rising costs. The effects of the president’s trade wars, which have squeezed demand and raised costs further, have left the sector in a state of extended uncertainty.
“I don’t think any of us are big fans of getting subsidised by the federal government,” said Ms Jennie Schmidt, who grows corn and soybeans in Maryland.
“The biggest challenge for us is when commodity prices go down but your input prices go up and then you lose your trading partners,” she said. “So it’s kind of been more than a double whammy on the ag economy.”
Some growers, who are longtime supporters of Mr Trump, are still optimistic about a recovery beginning 2026, and farmer sentiment is at the highest level since June on hopes for trade with China. But the fundamentals aren’t pointing to a turnaround anytime soon.
Federal data shows farm bankruptcies on the rise, while income from selling corn, soybeans and wheat crops has declined since 2022. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts net farm income will increase in 2025, but that is largely driven by government assistance.
Mr Barry Evans, who grows grain sorghum, cotton and wheat in Texas, was seated not far from Mr Trump when the president announced the farm aid on Dec 8. He said timing is of the essence for South Texas farmers who are just several weeks away from planting, and need to make plans and secure bank loans.
“Cotton and wheat all depend on export markets and they are in the tank right now. So our prices are getting horribly low and our inputs are way up, so you just add that altogether and it’s causing a lot of pain,” he said. “Definitely need this relief.”
While he echoed many farmers who say they wished they didn’t need federal aid, Mr Evans said he was grateful for it.
“As a farmer, we can’t control what the markets do. We can’t control what other governments do,” he said. “They don’t all play fair, and so sometimes it’s necessary to have support.”
Stress has been particularly acute among soybean farmers after China, the world’s top importer, avoided buying US supplies this year to gain leverage in trade talks. Though China has resumed purchases following recent diplomatic agreements, its commitment has yet to fully pan out.
The reality is that America’s agricultural dominance is dwindling. Mr Trump’s first trade war resulted in China accelerating a diversion of its supply chain away from the US to places like South America. US farmers have lost crucial market share to competitors, particularly Brazil.
“Economics 101: trade wars, nobody wins,” said Dr Ryan Loy, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas. “We can point at politics, but really for many reasons at the end of the day, China goes, ‘They’re cheaper, I’m gonna buy it from them.’”
The difficulty in predicting a recovery in the US farm economy was underscored last month as equipment makers including Deere & Co gave disappointing outlooks for the year ahead, as farmers continue to hold back on buying tractors, despite Mr Trump’s urging. The president on Monday pressured the companies to drop prices for their machines, blaming them for driving up costs for farmers.
Mr Richardson, who grows corn and soybeans, said that while he is older and established enough to weather the strain, his sons have been squeezed.
“It’s putting the crunch on my boys,” he said. “They’re, you know: ‘I’m not buying a new pickup or not even going to John Deere, so no use for me even thinking about that because it isn’t going to happen.’”
Many believe the US farm economy will continue to be mired in this downturn throughout the coming year.
“This time next year, we’re going to be having much the same conversation about margins for growers, about the potential need for economic support,” said Mr Sam Taylor, a farm inputs analyst at Rabobank. “We could be in a trough for a little bit longer than some people would want.” Bloomberg