Quick Read
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NVIDIA’s (NVDA) revenue grew 62.5% and net income increased 65.3% year over year in Q3 2025.
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As the U.S. government green-lights chip sales to China, NVIDIA now has huge expansion opportunities.
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NVDA stock’s path to $500 isn’t assured but appears highly probable.
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It’s the darling of the financial markets and the undisputed heavyweight champion among U.S.-based processor producers. Truly, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is roundly revered and to many traders, NVIDIA seems unstoppable.
There are plenty of price predictions for NVDA stock, and some optimists can easily envision the share price hitting $500 by 2030. Is this too far-fetched, though?
The skeptics may doubt that the rally is sustainable and might see $500 as an impossible dream. Yet, as the data will reveal, NVIDIA is a chip-making powerhouse in the age of artificial intelligence (AI). So, keep an open mind as NVIDIA stock’s upside potential is considerable.
Is NVIDIA the Next Cisco?
Even if it is a darling of the market, NVIDIA has its doubters. One bearish-leaning commentator is hedge fund manager Michael Burry, the subject of the film The Big Short.
As Rich Duprey explained here and here, Burry compared NVIDIA to Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), the telecommunications hardware giant that fell from grace with the dot-com bust. In the late 1990s, it felt like Cisco and its shares would continue to gain value forever.
Burry apparently expects NVIDIA’s market capitalization to contract in the coming years, much as Cisco’s did after the late 1990s. His company, Scion Asset Management, has even gone so far as to take a massively bearish position against NVIDIA stock by owning put options.
If Burry’s comparison between NVIDIA and Cisco holds true, then NVDA stock is unlikely to reach $500 by 2030. In hindsight, the hype surrounding Cisco outpaced the actual demand for the company’s products. So, is there a demand shortfall for NVIDIA’s AI-enabled processors?
Income Jump Suggests High Demand
From a financial standpoint, it certainly looks like there’s enough AI chip demand to keep NVIDIA flush with cash. A quick glance at NVIDIA’s third-quarter 2025 results should drive this point home.
In Q3 2025, NVIDIA generated revenue totaling $57.006 billion, versus $35.082 billion in the year-earlier quarter. That’s a 62.5% improvement, and most of the third-quarter 2025 revenue ($51.215 billion) was from NVIDIA’s Data Center segment. Thus, the demand for NVIDIA’s AI-compatible products isn’t lacking.
Furthermore, NVIDIA’s net income grew 65.3% year over year, from $19.309 billion to $31.91 billion. In other words, the company is raking in a lot more capital than it’s spending.
Looking ahead, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang proclaimed that the company’s Blackwell chip sales are “off the charts” and that its cloud GPUs are sold out. Therefore, NVIDIA in 2025 doesn’t appear to be in the same precarious position that Cisco was in 1999.
Trade Agreement Favors NVIDIA
The skeptics might argue that NVIDIA can’t possibly expand its sales much more than it already has. However, a recent U.S.-China trade agreement indicates that NVIDIA may have new horizons to conquer.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump is allowing NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China. Trump, according to the Journal, specified that Washington would collect 25% of NVIDIA’s sales from China.
If all goes according to plan, NVIDIA stands to gain on a grand scale. The company estimated, per the Journal that it “could ship up to $5 billion in orders to China” per quarter “without geopolitical constraints.”
The implications go beyond short-term revenue prospects. It’s now inarguable that the current administration values NVIDIA and seeks to protect the company’s interests.
It’s unknown whether the next presidential administration will be quite as business-friendly toward NVIDIA. Nonetheless, the current administration will presumably be in place until January of 2029, and this is probably good news for NVIDIA and its shareholders.
The Path to $500 Is Clear
Given the pace of NVIDIA’s sales and income growth, investors should expect the company’s market cap to expand during the next five years. Unless NVIDIA actually collapses like Cisco once did, the path of least resistance for NVDA stock is to the upside.
Sure, NVIDIA stock has already rallied 33% over the past year. But again, on a year-over-year basis, the company’s net sales and revenue rose 62.5% and 65.3%, respectively.
Besides, those growth figures reflect a time before the President green-lit the chip sales to China. Hence, there’s still room for NVIDIA to expand its sales scope and, ultimately, its economic moat.
All in all, Berry’s catastrophic AI chip market implosion scenario looks like a long shot. The financial data and the government’s apparent motivation to protect NVIDIA’s interests put the odds in the shareholders’ favor.
Consequently, NVIDIA’s growth trajectory should persist through 2030 and NVDA stock’s pathway to $500 is clear, albeit not guaranteed. That’s why it’s sensible to own a few, but not too many, NVIDIA shares for the long run.
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